7/13/26

Stocks slid to start a pivotal week as renewed U.S.–Iran strikes over the Strait of Hormuz sent oil sharply higher, while a brutal memory-chip selloff sparked by SK Hynix’s (SKHY) disappointing profit guidance rattled the AI trade. Energy names were the one bright spot, cushioning the Dow as tech bore the brunt of the damage. All eyes now turn to Tuesday, when June CPI lands at the same moment as the season’s first wave of bank earnings.

What Happened Today

• 🔴 S&P 500 closed at 7,515.34, down 0.79%—pulling back from last week’s highs as risk-off spread across the tape.

• 🔴 Nasdaq Composite fell 1.55% (-408.43 points) to 25,873.18—the session’s biggest laggard as memory and chip names got hit hardest.

• 🔴 Dow Jones dropped 138.37 points (-0.26%) to 52,498.64—the smallest decline of the majors, cushioned by energy.

• 🔴 Russell 2000 lost 0.83% (-24.64) to 2,953.17—small-caps offered no shelter from the broader selling.

• 🟡 Breadth was mixed rather than uniformly negative—energy and a handful of defensive names advanced even as the indices closed lower.

Earnings

• 🟡 A quiet day on the earnings front—the real action starts tomorrow, when JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs kick off Q2 bank earnings season before the open (full preview below in Tomorrow’s Calendar).

• 🟢 Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP) both topped estimates last week, setting an encouraging tone heading into the bank-earnings deluge.

Macro/Policy

• 🔴 Fed rate-hike odds jumped as oil surged—Kalshi traders now price a 36% chance of a July hike, up from under 20% on Sunday, while CME’s FedWatch tool shows 46.5% odds of a 25bp hike on July 29.

• 🟡 Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned the central bank must not repeat the 2021–22 mistake of waiting too long to raise rates, though he cautioned against overcorrecting.

• 🟡 June CPI is due tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET—consensus looks for a soft headline (around -0.1% MoM, ~3.9% YoY) on falling June gasoline prices, but core CPI is expected to hold near 2.9% YoY, the number the Fed actually watches.

Geopolitics

• 🔴 The U.S. and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend and into Monday, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice”—a claim U.S. Central Command disputes.

• 🔴 President Trump announced the U.S. is reinstating a blockade on Iranian shipping through Hormuz and will seek a 20% toll on other cargo transiting the strait.

• 🔴 Iran retaliated against U.S. allies, including a reported strike on a Kuwaiti offshore drilling platform—the first direct hit on regional energy infrastructure in weeks.

• 🔴 Vessel traffic through Hormuz fell to a five-week low—just six ships transited Sunday versus a normal 18–22 daily crossings.

Foreign Markets

• 🔴 South Korea’s Kospi plunged roughly 9%, triggering a 20-minute circuit-breaker halt, as the memory-stock rout hit its epicenter.

• 🔴 SK Hynix shares fell more than 15% in Seoul—their steepest single-day drop on record—while Samsung Electronics dropped roughly 9–11%.

• 🔴 Brent crude jumped more than 3.5% to around $78.68/bbl on the renewed Hormuz tensions.

AI

• 🔴 SK Hynix (SKHY) U.S.-listed shares fell 8–9% in their second trading day after last week’s Nasdaq debut, after Korean brokerage KIS cut its Q2 profit forecast 8% below consensus on delayed HBM4 shipments.

• 🔴 The guidance miss cascaded through the AI memory trade: Micron (MU) fell roughly 5–6%, SanDisk (SNDK) tumbled 10–12%, Western Digital (WDC) dropped 7–8%, and the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) sank 9%.

• 🔴 AppLovin (APP) slid 11.2% after analysts flagged a slow start to its e-commerce advertising expansion.

• 🟡 The selloff is being read as profit-taking and a “sell the news” reaction to SK Hynix’s oversubscribed U.S. offering rather than a break in the underlying AI-memory demand story, according to traders quoted in Bloomberg.

Corporate

• 🟢 Biogen (BIIB) rose 5.2% after a Truist upgrade citing optimism around its Alzheimer’s pipeline.

• 🟢 Agenus (AGEN) surged 95–108% after announcing an oversubscribed private placement of up to $340M to fund its colon-cancer immunotherapy trial.

• 🟢 Twin Vee PowerCats (VEEE) spiked well over 300% on a definitive merger agreement to privatize its marine business.

• 🟢 FuboTV (FUBO) gained about 11% after naming former Disney+ president Alisa Bowen as its new CEO.

Market Structure

• 🟡 No index-composition changes or trading-rule shifts of note today.

🟢 Leaders

• Honeywell — top Nasdaq 100 gainer, up 7.5% on the day.

• Intuit — led S&P 500 gainers, up 4.3%.

• Biogen — up 5.2% on a Truist analyst upgrade.

• Agenus — up over 95% on a private-placement financing.

• LyondellBasell — added 4.1%.

🔴 Laggards

• AppLovin — down 11.2% on e-commerce ad-growth concerns.

• SK Hynix — fell roughly 9% in U.S. trading on a Q2 guidance cut.

• SanDisk — dropped as much as 12.3% in the memory-sector selloff.

• Western Digital — down 7–8% alongside memory peers.

• Micron — fell 5–6% in sympathy with SK Hynix’s miss.

Commodities

• 🟢 WTI crude jumped 4.6% to $74.70/bbl, extending the Hormuz-driven rally as the U.S. and Iran continued exchanging strikes near the waterway.

• 🟢 Brent crude rose 4.5% to $79.46/bbl, closing in on its highest level since the conflict reignited.

• 🟡 Copper slipped 0.5% to $6.20/lb, essentially holding steady despite the broader risk-off tone.

• 🔴 Natural gas eased 1.8% to $2.89/MMBtu, pressured by mild weather forecasts and comfortable storage levels.

• 🔴 Silver dropped 2.3% to $58.42/oz, tracking gold lower on the same rate repricing.

• 🔴 Gold fell 2.6% to roughly $4,005/oz, giving back ground as rising Fed rate-hike odds outweighed the safe-haven bid.

Crypto

• 🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) slid to around $61,900, down roughly 3.3%, as risk-off flows hit crypto alongside equities.

• 🟡 A wave of leveraged long liquidations (~$73M) amplified the move; traders are watching whether Bitcoin holds the $61,000–$62,500 zone heading into tomorrow’s CPI print.

Prediction Markets

• 🔴 Kalshi’s odds of a July 29 Fed rate hike rose to 36%, up sharply from under 20% on Sunday, as oil prices jumped.

• 🟡 Polymarket’s ladder shows 81.5% odds of “no change” and 16.6% odds of a 25bp hike at the July meeting—still the base case, but shifting.

• 🟢 Polymarket prices a 74% chance of a permanent U.S.–Iran peace deal by year-end, suggesting traders still see the current escalation as contained rather than a full breakdown.

Volatility

• 🔴 VIX jumped roughly 14% to around 17.1, reflecting the Iran escalation and positioning ahead of tomorrow’s CPI/bank-earnings double header.

• 🟡 Still well below levels that would signal acute fear—front-end vol is bid into tomorrow’s event risk rather than broad-based panic.

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Tuesday, July 14 — June CPI + Q2 Bank Earnings

• June CPI report — Bureau of Labor Statistics, 8:30 AM ET. Consensus: headline roughly -0.1% MoM / ~3.9% YoY; core CPI ~2.9% YoY.

• Q2 bank earnings — all five below report before the market open:

  

• BlackRock (BLK) and Morgan Stanley (MS) follow on Wednesday, July 15, also before the open.

• No notable after-the-close reports Tuesday evening—Tuesday’s AMC slate is limited to small regional names (e.g., Equity Bancshares). Netflix (NFLX) doesn’t report until later in the week.

Positioning Read

• Trend: S&P 500 at 7,515 is pulling back from last week’s highs; a clean CPI print and solid bank beats tomorrow could set up a retest of 7,575, while a hot print risks a slide toward 7,300–7,350.

• Breadth: Weak today—memory and chip names dragged the tape lower, with energy as the only real offset.

• Vol: VIX at 17.1 signals rising caution, not capitulation, heading into tomorrow’s twin catalysts.

• Macro: Fed-hike odds are moving in real time with oil prices—any further Hormuz escalation feeds directly into the rate debate.

3 Scenarios

• 🟢 Bullish: June CPI cools as expected, the big banks beat on EPS and revenue with confident guidance, and Iran tensions show signs of de-escalating—stocks rebound toward 7,575 and vol eases back below 16.

• 🟡 Neutral: CPI lands in line, bank results are solid but unspectacular, and the Hormuz standoff continues without fresh escalation—indices grind sideways in a 7,450–7,550 range.

• 🔴 Bearish: Core CPI runs hot, at least one major bank disappoints on NIM or credit, and Iran escalates further—S&P 500 tests 7,300–7,350, VIX pushes toward 22–25, and memory/AI names extend losses.

Final Take

Monday was a preview of the stakes for Tuesday: a two-front risk-off session—Iran-driven oil spike on one side, a memory-chip guidance shock on the other—that left the S&P 500 down for a second session and pushed Fed rate-hike odds meaningfully higher for the first time in weeks.

None of today’s damage was catastrophic, and energy’s resilience shows the market isn’t in full flight-to-safety mode. But the setup into Tuesday is about as loaded as it gets:

June CPI and five bank earnings reports hit the tape within two hours of each other, with the Strait of Hormuz standoff still unresolved in the background. A soft CPI print paired with confident bank guidance could turn this into a one-day scare; a hot print or credit-quality wobble from any of the majors would confirm today’s selling as the start of something bigger.

Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Motley Fool, Trading Economics, Benzinga, IG, Kiplinger.

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🟢 Stocks closed out a choppy week on a firm note Friday as SK Hynix’s US trading debut reinforced the AI memory trade and investors looked past a fraying US–Iran ceasefire. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched weekly gains, Meta jumped on an AI cost-efficiency note from Bank of America, and volatility eased sharply even as oil stayed elevated on lingering Middle East risk.

What Happened Today

• 🟢 S&P 500 closed at 7,575.39, +0.42%—a second straight weekly gain.

• 🟢 Nasdaq Composite rose +0.29% to 26,281.61.

• 🟢 Dow Jones added 149.60 points (+0.29%) to 52,637.01.

• 🔴 Russell 2000 slipped -0.49% to 2,977.81, lagging the broader tape.

• 🟡 Gains were concentrated in large-cap AI and semiconductor-adjacent names rather than broad-based.

Earnings

• 🟢 WD-40 (WDFC) surged +15% after adjusted Q3 EPS of $2.33 beat the $1.56 estimate; the company also raised full-year guidance.

• 🟢 Albany International (AIN) jumped +25.6% after revenue beat estimates by 10.8%.

• 🟢 MercadoLibre (MELI) gained +3.7% despite credit-loss provisions surging 106.5%.

• 🟢 Simply Good Foods (SMPL) rose +1.3% after adjusted EPS beat.

• 🔴 Fastly (FSLY) slid -35.8% as guidance disappointed, even after a modest revenue beat.

• 🔴 Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) fell -13.1% on an operating-income miss despite a revenue beat.

• 🔴 Delta Air Lines (DAL) fell more than 3% despite beating Q2 estimates on both lines—CEO Ed Bastian flagged persistent pricing power from elevated jet fuel costs.

• 🔴 Levi Strauss (LEVI) dropped -2.2% on soft fiscal 2026 guidance.

Macro / Policy

• 🟡 Minutes from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting flagged AI infrastructure demand as a fresh inflationary pressure alongside tariffs and energy—an unusual pairing that caught Wall Street’s attention.

• 🟡 NY Fed President John Williams said AI-driven demand is now the inflation factor he’s watching most closely.

• 🟡 Officials were unanimous on holding rates in June, though several saw a case for a hike; the Fed raised its 2026–27 inflation forecasts and cut GDP projections.

• 🟡 June CPI lands Tuesday—consensus looks for ~3.8% YoY, down from May’s 4.2%.

Geopolitics

• 🔴 The US–Iran ceasefire remains under strain after Trump declared it “over” this week following fresh US strikes and Iranian retaliation against American bases in the region.

• 🟡 Talks between Washington and Tehran are reportedly continuing despite the rhetoric, with a Qatari delegation said to be in Iran.

• 🟡 Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic remains well below normal; the IEA warned a prolonged standoff could complicate global inventory rebuilding.

Foreign Markets

• 🟢 South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 4% as SK Hynix’s US listing lifted sentiment.

• 🟢 Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Europe’s Stoxx 600 also advanced this week, up 1.4% and 0.8% respectively.

• 🟢 China’s CSI 300 climbed +2.5%.

• 🔴 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell -0.7%.

• 🟢 Vodafone surged +11.2% after E& agreed to sell its 16.2% stake to a Xavier Niel-backed vehicle for $5.95B.

• 🟢 EasyJet jumped on reports Apollo Global Management is weighing a $7.7B takeover approach.

AI

• 🟢 SK Hynix (SKHY) closed +13% at $168.01 in its Nasdaq debut, the largest-ever US share sale by a foreign company at $26.5B raised, with demand running roughly 7x the shares on offer.

• 🟢 NVDA rose +3.66% as SK Hynix’s listing reinforced the memory/HBM trade—SK Hynix holds an estimated 56.4% share of the HBM market.

• 🟢 Meta (META) jumped +6.10% after Bank of America flagged an internal memo suggesting AI data-center build costs may be roughly half of Street modeling.

• 🟢 AMD added +1.3% to $553.71 after Stifel raised its price target to $635.

• 🔴 Micron (MU) fell as investors weighed the new competitive dynamic now that US investors have direct access to SK Hynix.

Corporate

• 🟢 SK Hynix’s $26.5B ADR raise surpasses Alibaba’s $25B 2014 debut as the largest US listing by a foreign company.

• 🟢 E& agreed to sell its 16.2% Vodafone stake for $5.95B, a 15% premium to the prior close.

• 🟡 Apollo Global Management is reportedly weighing a $7.7B cash takeover of EasyJet.

• 🟢 Stifel raised its AMD price target to $635 on AI strength, though the average Street target of $520 implies limited near-term upside.

Market Structure

• 🟡 SK Hynix trades under the provisional ticker SKHYV Friday, converting to its permanent symbol SKHY on Monday, July 13.

• 🟡 The Korea Exchange briefly activated a buy-side circuit sidecar on the Kospi after futures surged more than 5%.

🟢 Leaders

• Albany International (AIN) +25.6%—earnings beat.

• WD-40 (WDFC) +15%—earnings beat, raised guidance.

• SK Hynix (SKHY) +13%—Nasdaq debut.

• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) +13%—US regulatory approval tied to its stablecoin business.

• Meta Platforms (META) +6.10%—BofA flagged lower AI infrastructure costs.

🔴 Laggards

• Fastly (FSLY) -35.8%—guidance disappointed despite a revenue beat.

• Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) -13.1%—operating income miss.

• Delta Air Lines (DAL) -3%—fell despite beating estimates.

• Levi Strauss (LEVI) -2.2%—soft guidance.

• Micron (MU) -1.4%—competitive pressure from SK Hynix’s listing.

Crypto

• 🟢 Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $64,300, up roughly 1.5–2% on the day and ~2.8% on the week, supported by ETF inflows and optimism around the pending CLARITY Act.

• 🟡 Ethereum (ETH) held near $1,795, little changed on the day.

• 🟢 Crypto has shown resilience despite renewed Middle East tension, a shift from the risk-off correlation seen earlier this year.

Prediction Markets

• 🟡 Kalshi contracts price roughly a 25% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting.

• 🟡 Bitcoin range contracts show $63,500–$63,999 as the modal outcome for Friday’s close, with 77% odds assigned to BTC finishing July above $65,000.

Volatility

• 🟢 VIX closed at 15.03, -5.11%, as the SK Hynix debut and a calmer options market outweighed lingering Iran headline risk.

• 🟡 Vol has compressed notably from earlier in the week—options markets appear to be treating the ceasefire strain as noise rather than a fresh shock, for now.

Tomorrow’s Calendar

(Markets are closed this weekend; below reflects the week ahead.)

• SK Hynix’s permanent ticker SKHY takes effect Monday, July 13, replacing SKHYV.

• June CPI lands Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30 AM ET, alongside Q2 earnings from JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) before the open—the start of bank earnings season.

• Fed Beige Book releases Wednesday, July 15.

• Any shift in US–Iran ceasefire talks remains a live wildcard for oil and risk sentiment.

Positioning Read

• Trend: S&P 500 at 7,575 closed out a second straight weekly gain, led by AI/mega-cap tech while small-caps and broader breadth lagged.

• Breadth: Friday’s advance was concentrated in a handful of large-cap AI and semiconductor-adjacent names.

• Vol: VIX at 15.03 signals a market pricing the Iran ceasefire strain as manageable rather than an acute shock.

• Macro regime: the Fed’s new emphasis on AI-driven inflation adds a fresh variable heading into Tuesday’s CPI print and the July 29 FOMC decision.

3 Scenarios

• 🟢 Bullish: June CPI cools toward consensus or below, easing rate-hike odds; the SK Hynix/Meta-led AI trade extends into bank earnings Tuesday; Iran talks hold despite rhetoric—indices push toward fresh weekly highs.

• 🟡 Neutral: CPI prints in line, leaving the Fed’s internal debate unresolved; JPM/GS earnings are solid but not decisive; Iran headlines stay noisy without fresh escalation—indices grind sideways.

• 🔴 Bearish: CPI surprises to the upside, reviving hike odds; renewed US-Iran hostilities send oil sharply higher; AI-cost-inflation concerns from the Fed minutes broaden into a mega-cap tech valuation reassessment—VIX moves back above 20.

Final Take

Friday closed a week defined by two competing forces: an AI trade that keeps finding new legs—first Meta’s cost-efficiency surprise, then SK Hynix’s record-setting Nasdaq debut—and a Middle East ceasefire that keeps fraying without fully breaking. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched weekly gains despite Trump’s mid-week declaration that the Iran ceasefire was “over,” suggesting markets are treating the conflict as contained rather than escalating, for now. The more interesting story for the weeks ahead may be structural: Fed minutes explicitly naming AI infrastructure demand as an inflationary force is a new wrinkle that complicates the simple “AI is deflationary” narrative. With June CPI and JPMorgan/Goldman Sachs earnings both landing Tuesday, next week offers the first real test of whether this week’s calm holds.

Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics, Forbes, The Motley Fool.

CappNotes offers a small window into the work we do at CappThesis - a technical analysis newsletter company focused on classical chart patterns, trend, and risk management. Explore the full range of CappThesis services here:

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🟢 Stocks pushed higher Thursday, shrugging off a fresh round of US–Iran escalation that might have rattled the tape in a different week. A rotation out of mega-cap AI hyperscalers and into semiconductors—ahead of SK Hynix’s US trading debut—did the heavy lifting, more than offsetting a mixed batch of consumer and pharma earnings. Oil actually retreated even as headlines out of the Gulf worsened, a sign traders may be growing numb to the on-again, off-again nature of the conflict. It was a session where the macro backdrop stayed noisy, but positioning and rotation told the real story.

What Happened Today

• 🟢 S&P 500 closed at 7,543.64, +0.81%—bouncing back from Wednesday’s dip and pushing back toward record territory.

• 🟢 Nasdaq Composite rose +1.30% to 26,206.89 (+336.24 points), its best session in over a week.

• 🟢 Dow Jones added 139.02 points (+0.27%) to 52,487.41, a more modest gain than the other major indices.

• 🟢 Russell 2000 small-caps outperformed, rising roughly +1.2%.

• 🟡 Breadth was solid but not universal—roughly 61% of US issues advanced, with the rally concentrated in semis rather than broad-based across every sector.

Earnings

• 🔴 PepsiCo (PEP) posted adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.20, a penny short of the $2.21 consensus, though revenue rose +6.4% YoY to $24.18B, boosted by strong international demand. Shares fell -1.8% to $140.

• 🔴 AstraZeneca (AZN) dropped roughly -7.8% after its heart-disease drug Wainua (eplontersen), developed with partner Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), failed to meet its primary goal in a Phase 3 trial. IONS tumbled -21.1%.

• 🟢 Q2 earnings season effectively kicks off tomorrow with Delta Air Lines (DAL) reporting before the bell Friday.

Macro / Policy

• 🟢 Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000 for the week ended July 4, down 4,000 from the prior week and below the 218,000 consensus—the lowest total since May 23.

• 🟡 Continuing claims ticked up 8,000 to 1.814 million, still running a week behind and showing a slower labor market than headline claims suggest.

• 🔴 June existing home sales unexpectedly fell -2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annualized 4.9 million, missing consensus expectations for an increase—another sign the housing market continues to gyrate under elevated rates.

• 🟡 Fed policy remains locked in “no cut” mode for now—prediction markets and futures both point to the central bank staying on hold through at least its July meeting (more in Prediction Markets below).

Geopolitics

• 🔴 President Trump declared the fragile US–Iran ceasefire “over” after Iran’s attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the US launched fresh strikes on roughly 90 Iranian targets overnight. Iran retaliated by striking US-allied countries across the Gulf.

• 🟡 Despite the escalation, markets treated the news as “on-again, off-again” background noise rather than a fresh shock—strategists noted investors may be growing “a bit immune” to the cycle of strikes and retaliation.

• 🟢 Oil prices fell on the day even as the conflict widened, with traders reassessing how much of the Strait of Hormuz disruption was already priced in after Wednesday’s sharp rally.

Foreign Markets

• 🟢 Nikkei 225 closed +1.4% in Japan.

• 🟢 Kospi rose +0.62% in South Korea, in choppy trade ahead of SK Hynix’s US listing.

• 🔴 Hang Seng fell -0.5% in Hong Kong.

• 🟢 CSI 300 jumped +2.5% in mainland China.

• 🟢 Europe’s Stoxx 600 closed +0.8%, with Germany’s DAX +0.83%, France’s CAC 40 +0.9%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.1% all higher.

• 🔴 UK’s FTSE 100 was the outlier, slipping -0.2%.

AI

• 🟢 Semiconductors rallied hard as investors rotated away from hyperscalers and into chips ahead of SK Hynix’s US trading debut. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) jumped more than +5%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed +2.5%.

• 🟢 Micron Technology (MU) gained +4.5%, Sandisk (SNDK) popped +7.6%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose +5.4%, and Arm Holdings (ARM) jumped +11%.

• 🔴 The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) slipped -0.6%, underscoring the divergence—money moved out of the mega-cap AI trade and into chip-specific names today.

Corporate

• 🟡 S&P Global downgraded Oracle (ORCL) from BBB/A-2 to BBB-/A-3, citing “rising business risk and weaker cash flow” amid the company’s aggressive AI data center capex. The downgrade puts Oracle on the lowest rung of investment grade. Shares still rose +3.07% on the day.

• 🔴 CACI International (CACI) fell -7.7%.

Market Structure

• 🟡 SpaceX (SPCX) joined the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) earlier this week, but the addition hasn’t provided support—shares are now roughly -29% off their post-IPO peak.

🟢 Leaders

• nLIGHT (LASR) +27.5%—top performer in the market today.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) +11%—most valuable name on today’s leaderboard as chip rotation accelerates.

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) +17.5%—premarket strength carried through the session.

• Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) +6.1%.

• Marvell Technology (MRVL) +5.4%—riding the broader semiconductor rally.

🔴 Laggards

• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -21.1%—Wainua Phase 3 trial miss with partner AstraZeneca.

• AstraZeneca (AZN) -7.8%—same Wainua readout.

• CACI International (CACI) -7.7%.

Crypto

• 🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) slipped to roughly $61,800, down about -1.8%, tracking a cautious tone in risk assets despite the equity rally.

• 🟡 Crypto continues to trade more in line with risk sentiment than as a geopolitical hedge—Iran headlines haven’t produced a safe-haven bid here.

Prediction Markets

• 🔴 Polymarket traders assign just a ~5% probability that Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by July 31, underscoring how entrenched the disruption has become.

• 🟡 Fed rate-cut odds remain firmly anchored—Polymarket prices roughly 78% on zero rate cuts in 2026, while the market assigns an 83% probability to “no change” at the Fed’s July meeting.

Volatility

• 🟡 VIX eased to the high-teens, still elevated versus its recent range but well off the acute-fear levels (22–30) seen during past flare-ups in the conflict—markets are pricing this escalation as manageable for now.

Tomorrow’s Calendar

• Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports earnings before the bell Friday—the unofficial kickoff to Q2 earnings season.

• Geopolitical headline risk remains the wildcard—any further Iran escalation or de-escalation signal could move oil and vol sharply intraday.

Positioning Read

• Trend: S&P 500 at 7,543.64 is back within striking distance of record territory, recovering the bulk of Wednesday’s pullback in a single session.

• Breadth: ~61% of issues advanced, but the rally was concentrated in semiconductors rather than broad-based—hyperscalers actually lagged.

• Vol: VIX eased from Wednesday’s spike, suggesting markets are treating the latest Iran escalation as more of the same rather than a new regime.

• Macro regime: Fed policy remains anchored at “no cut,” with prediction markets showing high conviction on that outcome through at least July.

3 Scenarios

🟢 Bullish: Iran signals genuine de-escalation, oil continues to retreat, and Q2 earnings season (kicking off with Delta tomorrow) comes in strong—S&P 500 pushes toward fresh highs above 7,600.

🟡 Neutral: Markets stay choppy and rotational, digesting mixed Iran headlines while money continues to shuffle between AI hyperscalers and semiconductors—S&P 500 range-bound between 7,450–7,550, Fed stays firmly on hold.

🔴 Bearish: Iran conflict widens further (including any strike on Kharg Island, as Trump has threatened), oil spikes back above $80, reviving the inflation shock narrative against a Fed that’s already signaled zero cuts—S&P 500 retests 7,300–7,350.

Final Take

Thursday was a reminder that markets can absorb a lot of geopolitical noise when the price action doesn’t cooperate with the headlines—stocks rallied even as the US and Iran traded fresh strikes, because oil fell rather than spiked. The real story under the hood was rotation: money moved out of the AI hyperscaler trade and into semiconductors ahead of SK Hynix’s US debut, a signal that investors are getting more selective about where in the AI stack they want exposure rather than abandoning the theme. With Fed rate-cut odds for 2026 sitting near 78% for zero cuts and Q2 earnings season kicking off tomorrow with Delta, the next real catalyst is corporate results—not the next Iran headline.

Source: CNBC, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, Polymarket, Fortune.

Stocks pulled back Wednesday after President Trump declared the fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire “over” following renewed American strikes on Iran overnight, sending oil prices surging and reviving the inflation-shock narrative markets had started to move past. The Dow dropped 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39, and the S&P 500 slipped -0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a +0.20% gain as chipmakers rebounded even as AI hyperscalers sold off. WTI crude surged roughly 5% to the mid-$70s, and hawkish FOMC minutes released today compounded the pressure, showing some Fed officials saw a case for further rate hikes if inflation stays elevated. The selloff was global — European and Asian markets fell sharply in sympathy.

What Happened Today

• 🔴 Dow Jones fell 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39 — 23 of 30 components declined as the geopolitical shock and credit-sensitive names weighed on the index.

• 🔴 S&P 500 slipped -0.28% to roughly 7,482.84 — a broad but orderly pullback rather than a rout.

• 🟢 Nasdaq Composite rose +0.20% to 25,870.65 — chipmaker strength offset weakness in AI hyperscalers.

• 🔴 Russell 2000 dropped -0.88% to 2,956.39 — small-caps underperformed on renewed risk-off positioning.

• 🔴 VIX jumped +4.77% to 16.90 — vol picked up but remains far from panic levels.

Earnings

• No major S&P 500 earnings releases drove the tape today — geopolitics and Fed commentary were the dominant catalysts, with Q2 earnings season proper kicking off next week when the large banks report.

Macro / Policy

• 🔴 FOMC minutes from the June meeting showed some policymakers saw a case for further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated — a hawkish surprise that reversed the dovish tone markets had been pricing since last week’s soft jobs report.

• 🔴 Treasury yields rose on the combination of the hawkish minutes and oil-driven inflation concerns, pressuring credit-sensitive sectors — financials and housing-linked names were among the day’s weakest.

• 🟡 The IMF raised its 2026 oil price forecast by nearly 32% and now expects global consumer prices to rise 4.7%, up from 4.1% in 2025 — signaling that progress on inflation has stalled. The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens later this month and trade normalizes by March 2027.

Geopolitics

• 🔴 President Trump declared the U.S.–Iran ceasefire “over” after American forces carried out fresh strikes on Iran overnight, in response to recent attacks on commercial vessels — including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker — transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

• 🔴 The U.S. revoked the waiver that had permitted Iran to sell crude oil on global markets.

• 🔴 Iran said it targeted roughly 85 U.S. military sites across Bahrain and Kuwait in response, though Trump later said he didn’t expect the conflict to fully reignite even as he suggested further strikes were possible tonight.

• 🔴 The escalation reverses the supply-glut narrative that had built up after OPEC+ raised output quotas in recent months, deterring shipowners and regional producers from using the Hormuz waterway.

Foreign Markets

• 🔴 European stocks sold off sharply in sympathy: the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell -1.61%, Germany’s DAX dropped -2.3%, France’s CAC 40 lost -2.18%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell -1.66%, and Switzerland’s SMI declined -1.3%. Losses were broad across the region, with only Norway, Russia, and Poland bucking the trend.

• 🔴 In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell -2.1% to 66,819.05, and South Korea’s Kospi was hit hardest, tumbling -5.4% to 7,246.79 as chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics (-6.3%) and SK Hynix (-5.7%) extended a two-day rout.

• 🟢 Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the regional trend, rising +3% to 24,193.56, lifted by a nearly 14% surge in Chinese AI model start-up Zhipu (Z.ai). Taiwan’s Taiex also held up, adding +0.6%.

• 🔴 China’s Shanghai Composite slipped -0.5% to 3,970.88, more muted than the losses seen in Japan and Korea.

AI

• 🟢 Broadcom (AVGO) gained +4.8% after expanding its agreement with Apple (AAPL) (+0.9%) on U.S.-made components.

• 🟢 Nvidia (NVDA) rose +3.6% on reports that Chinese firms plan to increase purchases of H200 chips.

• 🔴 Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -1.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) fell -1.4%, and Amazon (AMZN) fell -1% — AI hyperscalers broadly lower on renewed concerns over heavy data-center capex spending.

Corporate

• 🟢 Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin raised roughly $10 billion in its first-ever outside funding round, valuing the rocket company at $130 billion — Bezos is contributing about $2 billion of the round, with roughly $4 billion from Coatue Management.

• 🟢 Bank of America (BAC) called NVDA a “strong buy” at what it characterized as a 7-year valuation low.

• 🟢 Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating on AAPL, citing checks showing improving iPhone sales momentum.

Market Structure

• No major index rebalances, additions/removals, or trading-rule changes today — a quiet day on the structural front following Tuesday’s SpaceX (SPCX) addition to the Nasdaq-100.

🟢 Leaders

• AVGO +4.8% — expanded U.S.-made component agreement with Apple.

• NVDA +3.6% — reports of rising Chinese demand for H200 chips.

• AAPL +0.9% — Bernstein reiterated Outperform on iPhone momentum.

🔴 Laggards

• American Express (AXP) -3.80% — weakest Dow component.

• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) -3.49% — among today’s steepest Dow declines.

• Boeing (BA) -3.03% — reversing part of Monday’s gain.

• JPMorgan (JPM) -2.5%, Visa (V) -1.3% — credit-sensitive financials broadly weaker on rising yields.

• Home Depot (HD) and GE Vernova (GEV) both -3% — rate-sensitive names hit by the yield spike.

• GOOGL -1.4%, MSFT -1.4%, AMZN -1% — AI hyperscaler capex concerns.

Crypto

• 🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) fell to roughly $62,100, down -2.4%, tracking the broader risk-off move as geopolitical tensions reignited.

• 🔴 Crypto continues to trade as a risk asset rather than a safe haven in this environment — declining in lockstep with equities rather than offering ballast.

Prediction Markets

• 🟡 Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder still leans heavily toward zero cuts this year (roughly 77–78% Yes on the “0 (0bps)” outcome), though conviction has eased from the low-80s in recent weeks as incoming data has muddied the picture.

• 🟡 Iran-related contracts — ceasefire durability and Strait of Hormuz normalization — are seeing heavy trading activity following today’s “ceasefire is over” comments; expect a meaningful repricing lower on normalization-by-date contracts once updated odds settle out.

Volatility

• 🔴 VIX rose +4.77% to 16.90 — a meaningful pickup off Monday’s cycle lows near 15.9, though still well below levels associated with genuine fear (25+).

• 🟡 Term structure is likely to stay sensitive to Iran headlines in the near term — any further escalation or de-escalation signal could move vol sharply in either direction.

Tomorrow’s Calendar

Thursday, July 9

• 8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 5)

• 10:00 AM ET — Existing Home Sales (June)

Friday, July 10

• Before the open — Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports Q2 2026 earnings; consensus around $1.44–$1.48 EPS on ~$17.7–18.9B revenue. Analyst call at 10:00 AM ET. Unofficially kicks off Q2 earnings season.

• No major economic data scheduled.

Week ahead

• Monday, July 14 (pre-market) — JPM, BlackRock (BLK), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) report Q2 earnings — the official start of bank earnings season.

• Tuesday, July 15 — BAC and Morgan Stanley (MS) report earnings; June CPI is also released the same day.

Positioning Read

• 🔴 Trend: today’s pullback interrupts the uptrend that carried the S&P 500 and Dow to record highs Monday — not yet a trend break, but the first real test of the rally’s resilience to a geopolitical shock.

• 🟡 Breadth: 23 of 30 Dow components declined, and the sell-off was broad-based outside of chips — a narrower rally than Monday’s, concentrated almost entirely in the AI-hardware trade.

• 🔴 Vol: VIX’s jump off cycle lows signals the market is repricing risk, though at 16.90 it remains far from a stress reading.

• 🔴 Macro regime: the hawkish FOMC minutes plus a fresh oil-driven inflation scare have undone much of the dovish, rate-cut-friendly narrative that built up after last week’s soft jobs report — this is the most meaningfully worse macro setup in over a week.

3 Scenarios

• 🟢 Bullish: Overnight Iran headlines stay contained, oil gives back today’s spike, and Fed speakers push back on the hawkish minutes reading — S&P 500 stabilizes and retests 7,530–7,540 within days.

• 🟡 Neutral: The ceasefire remains effectively broken but doesn’t escalate into a broader regional conflict; oil stays elevated in the mid-$70s to high-$70s; markets grind in a choppy 7,400–7,530 range as they digest both the geopolitical and rate-path uncertainty.

• 🔴 Bearish: Iran or a proxy actor disrupts Hormuz shipping meaningfully, oil spikes toward $85+ Brent, and the inflation shock forces a genuinely more hawkish Fed repricing — S&P 500 tests 7,250–7,300, VIX pushes above 22.

Final Take

Wednesday was the clearest reminder yet that the geopolitical backdrop hasn’t actually gone away — it just went quiet for a couple of weeks. The ceasefire that markets had priced as durable enough to ignore is now explicitly “over” by the president’s own words, and the combination of that with a hawkish surprise from the FOMC minutes is a genuinely worse setup than what we had heading into this week. That said, the market’s reaction was orderly, not panicked: a -1.09% Dow day and a VIX print still under 17 is a long way from capitulation, and chip stocks actually rallied through the noise. The real tell is oil — if the mid-$70s WTI level holds rather than extending toward $80+, this likely stays a headline-driven wobble rather than a regime change.

Bottom line: watch the overnight Iran headlines and the oil tape before drawing conclusions — this is a story that could resolve either direction within 48 hours, and the market is right to not be fully committed to either outcome yet.

Source: TheStreet, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, Fortune, 24/7 Wall St., Euronews, Polymarket, Kiplinger, Zacks, IG.