Summary
Wall Street closed a volatile week on a quiet note Friday.
The S&P 500 inched to a near-flat finish while the Dow outperformed on strength in a handful of blue chips.
Chip stocks extended Thursday’s selloff, keeping the Nasdaq in the red for a second straight day.
Oil tumbled on reports of a possible revival in stalled US-Iran talks.
Strong earnings from several blue-chip names helped offset lingering AI-capex jitters.
Markets now turn to next week’s Fed decision and a fresh wave of Big Tech earnings.
Major Indices & Breadth
🟡 S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, +3.68 points (+0.05%) — essentially flat after Thursday’s steepest one-day drop in a month.
🟢 Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 235.60 points (+0.46%) to 51,947.25, lifted by a big rally in Apple (AAPL).
🔴 Nasdaq Composite fell 161.87 points (-0.64%) to 24,975.82, weighed down again by chip stocks.
🔴 Russell 2000 slipped 10.16 points (-0.35%) to 2,930.00.
🔴 Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%, and a gauge of semiconductor stocks sank as much as 4.4%, extending Thursday’s tech-led rout.
🟢 Breadth within the S&P 500 was broadly positive — most constituents traded higher — with the index-level drag concentrated in a handful of large chipmakers.
🟢 Leaders
THC +23%
RNG +22%
BAH +13%
HCA +4.2%
AAPL +3.6%
🔴 Laggards
RBNE -37%
CDXS -24%
MXL -15%
SPCX -2.7%
INTC -2.3%
Earnings
🔴 Intel (INTC) beat Q2 estimates after Thursday’s close, with revenue up 25% YoY to $16.1B (vs. $14.4B est.) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.42, more than double the roughly $0.21 estimate. The company posted an $11B GAAP net loss, raised its 2026 capex plan to over $20B from roughly $18B, and guided Q3 EPS to $0.38 on revenue of $15.8B-$16.8B. Despite the beat, INTC closed down about 2.3% at $100.23 (see Laggards) as investors focused on margin and outlook details.
🟢 Verizon (VZ) beat on earnings and revenue, raised its adjusted EPS outlook to $4.99-$5.04, lifted full-year mobility and broadband revenue growth guidance to 2.5%-3.0%, and increased its buyback target to as much as $4.5B; VZ shares rose about 3.5%.
🔴 American Express (AXP) beat on EPS ($4.53 vs. $4.40 est.) but revenue of $19.64B fell just short of the $19.69B estimate; AXP shares fell roughly 5% as rising expenses and a higher tax rate overshadowed the beat.
🔴 NextEra Energy (NEE) beat on earnings but missed on revenue; NEE shares slipped about 0.5%.
🟢 Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) posted adjusted EPS of $1.81, well above the $1.49 estimate, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 11.9%; BAH shares surged (see Leaders).
🟢 HCA Healthcare (HCA) topped estimates; HCA shares rose about 4.2% (see Leaders).
🔴 Charter Communications (CHTR) beat on EPS ($10.66 vs. $10.00 est.) but revenue missed and internet-subscriber losses widened; CHTR shares fell roughly 5%.
🟡 Also reporting today, without a confirmed price reaction at file time: SLB (SLB), The Hartford (HIG), and Comfort Systems USA (FIX).
AI
🔴 Chip stocks extended Thursday’s rout, with the sector benchmark down as much as 4.4% and the Nasdaq 100 off 1.1% (see Major Indices & Breadth).
🔴 Micron (MU) fell 5.6% and SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 5.9% as an overnight slide in South Korea’s KOSPI (see Foreign Markets) triggered a sympathy selloff across US memory names; SK Hynix (SKHY) ADRs fell about 6%.
🔴 Nvidia (NVDA) slipped roughly 1.6%, putting its eight-week winning streak at risk.
🔴 INTC’s strong Q2 beat (see Earnings) wasn’t enough to keep the stock in the green for long; shares closed down about 2.3%, a sign investors remain skeptical about near-term AI-capex payoff.
🔴 SpaceX (SPCX) closed at a fresh all-time low (see Laggards) amid dilution concerns tied to its Cursor acquisition and heavy AI-infrastructure spending ahead of an August 6 lockup expiration.
🟢 Oracle (ORCL) rose roughly 3% after landing a Pentagon deal worth close to $7B over up to 10 years, consolidating the Defense Department’s on-premises software licenses (see Corporate).
Corporate
🟢 ORCL secured the nearly $7B, decade-long Pentagon software-consolidation contract (see AI).
🟢 Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX) both raised their 2026 forecasts as the Pentagon looks to restock weapons inventories.
🟡 McDonald’s (MCD) maintained its quarterly dividend at $1.86 per share, payable Sept. 16.
🟡 Charles Schwab (SCHW) maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.32 per share, payable Aug. 28.
🟢 A General Dynamics (GD) unit won a $127.1 million US Navy submarine-systems contract.
🔴 Newmont (NEM) topped profit estimates on higher gold prices, though Q2 revenue of $6.12B came in below the $6.36B estimate; NEM shares dipped roughly 1% on the report.
🟡 Ford (F) and Geely formed a Europe-focused vehicle joint venture.
🟢 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rolled out new H15 servers built on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) chips for AI and cloud workloads.
Market Structure
🟡 No major S&P 500, Dow, or Nasdaq-100 rebalances, additions/removals, or market-structure rule changes were reported today.
Macro/Policy
🔴 A new round of Section 301 tariffs (10%-12.5%) covering roughly 99.4% of US imports took effect overnight; the White House exempted some energy products.
🟢 S&P Global’s flash PMI showed US business activity expanding at its fastest pace in eight months in July.
🟡 The Fed’s rate decision lands Wednesday, July 29. CME FedWatch-implied odds of a hold have slipped to roughly 64% from about 87% a week ago, while other market pricing puts the odds of a hike at next week’s meeting above 33% and a September hike near 78%.
Treasury Bonds
🟡 10-year yield: 4.71%, roughly flat on the day after climbing for four straight sessions to its highest level since January 2025.
🟡 2-year yield: ~4.37%, little changed.
🟡 30-year yield: ~5.17%, little changed.
🟡 2s10s spread: roughly +34 basis points.
Geopolitics
🔴 The US carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting military infrastructure and maritime capabilities; both sides have ruled out near-term talks.
🟢 Reports that Pakistan, backed by China, is working to revive stalled US-Iran negotiations lifted sentiment and pulled oil lower during the session (see Commodities).
🔴 Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea Thursday.
🔴 Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended crude loadings at its Black Sea terminal following tanker attacks, disrupting roughly 80% of the country’s oil exports.
🟡 The US military says the Strait of Hormuz remains open with American support despite the disruption.
Foreign Markets
🔴 Nikkei 225 fell 2.69% to 64,634.04, tracking Wall Street’s Thursday tech-led selloff.
🔴 KOSPI plunged 5.72% to 6,690.62, now down nearly 30% from its June high, as SK Hynix and Samsung slumped; South Korea’s regulator tightened leveraged-ETF deposit requirements effective July 31.
🟢 STOXX 600 rose 0.82%, with Germany’s DAX up 1.36%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.88%, Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.95%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 up 1.63% as Europe tracked Wall Street’s rebound and retreating oil prices.
Currencies
🟡 DXY: 101.46, +0.01% — essentially flat, holding near a one-month high.
🟢 EUR/USD: 1.1368, -0.08% (euro weaker, dollar firmer).
🔴 USD/JPY: 163.81, -0.03% (dollar slightly softer vs. the yen, though the yen remains near a four-decade low).
🟢 GBP/USD: 1.3315, -0.01% (pound slightly weaker, dollar firmer).
Commodities
🔴 WTI crude fell roughly 4.7% to settle near $87.88 a barrel.
🔴 Brent crude dropped roughly 4% to settle near $97, its biggest one-day decline since late June, as reports of a possible US-Iran talks revival eased supply fears (see Geopolitics).
🟢 Gold rose 0.13% to $4,055.60 an ounce.
🟢 Silver rose 1.57% to $58.54 an ounce.
Crypto
🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $64,900, down roughly 1%-1.5%, on pace for a fifth straight losing session as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $225 million in net outflows Thursday.
🔴 Ethereum (ETH) traded near $1,880, down roughly 1.5%-2.5%.
🔴 Total crypto market capitalization slipped to roughly $2.2-$2.3 trillion.
Prediction Markets
🟡 Polymarket’s contract on Friday’s S&P 500 open had implied a 66% probability of a higher open following Thursday’s selloff; the index did open higher before fading to a near-flat close (see Major Indices & Breadth).
🟡 CME FedWatch-implied odds for next week’s Fed decision continue to favor a hold, though that probability has eased (see Macro/Policy).
Volatility
🟢 VIX closed at 18.58, -0.64%, easing from Thursday’s close of 18.70 (which had jumped 12.4%) as markets stabilized somewhat heading into the weekend.
🔴 Chip-sector volatility stayed elevated for a second straight session amid the ongoing semiconductor selloff (see AI).
Tomorrow’s Calendar
Durable Goods Orders — 8:30 AM ET
Earnings: AstraZeneca (AZN), Baker Hughes (BKR), and others ahead of a heavier Big Tech earnings slate later in the week
FOMC meeting begins Tuesday; Fed rate decision due Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 PM ET
Apple (AAPL) reports fiscal Q3 earnings Thursday, July 30; Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) also report next week
3 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish: Weekend reports of Pakistan/China-brokered US-Iran talks gain traction, oil extends Friday’s slide, Treasury yields ease, and chip stocks stabilize heading into next week’s Fed decision and Big Tech earnings.
🟡 Neutral: Middle East headlines stay noisy but inconclusive, oil chops in a wide range, and markets mark time ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Thursday’s Apple earnings.
🔴 Bearish: Talks collapse or a fresh Hormuz escalation hits, oil reverses higher, the Fed strikes a hawkish tone Wednesday, and chip-sector selling resumes, pressuring AI-infrastructure names further.
Final Take
Friday’s session was less about direction than digestion.
Chipmakers kept bleeding for a second day, but strong reports from Verizon, HCA Healthcare, and Booz Allen gave the Dow room to run, even as American Express got punished for a rare revenue miss.
Oil’s sharp retreat on hopes for renewed US-Iran diplomacy did more to calm nerves than any single equity headline.
Intel’s report captured the day’s tension well: a genuine beat that the market shrugged off anyway.
Next week brings the real test — a Fed decision Wednesday and Apple’s earnings Thursday — and this week’s muted close suggests investors are saving their conviction for then.
Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingEconomics, CoinDesk, Benzinga.
Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingEconomics, CoinDesk, Benzinga.
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