Closing Look - 8/11/26
Stocks slipped a little further from last week’s records as the US and Iran dug in their heels ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report.
🔴 The S&P 500 and Dow each fell roughly a third of a percent, while the Nasdaq lagged as Big Tech capex jitters hit Alphabet (GOOGL).
Cardinal Health (CAH) was the exception, closing at a fresh record high after a beat-and-raise quarter.
But the real event was after the bell: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and CoreWeave (CRWV) both reported, and both stocks jumped as AI infrastructure demand once again overshadowed profitability and balance-sheet concerns.
On Holding (ONON) was the day’s biggest single-name casualty, tumbling roughly 20% on a revenue miss and trimmed full-year guidance.
Wednesday’s July CPI print is now the whole story for the week ahead.
Major Indices & Breadth
🔴 Nasdaq Composite fell -0.60% to 26,445.45—the laggard of the day as AI-capex jitters weighed hardest on the most tech-heavy index.
🔴 Dow Jones dropped 184.13 points (-0.34%) to 53,791.85.
🔴 S&P 500 slipped -0.32% to 7,728.20, its second modest pullback since last week’s record close.
🟢 Russell 2000 bucked the trend, adding +0.32% to 3,027.12.
🔴 Breadth leaned negative and mega-cap-driven: Big Tech names including GOOGL, Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) all declined, while industrials and small-caps held up better.
🟢 Leaders
CRWV +13% (AH)
SMCI +8.5% (AH)
APO +3.6%
BX +3.3%
CAH +1%
🔴 Laggards
ONON -20%
DJT -8%
RIOT -5.5%
GOOGL -3.6%
Earnings
🟢 SMCI reported fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close: revenue of $11.1 billion missed the $11.56 billion consensus, but adjusted EPS of $1.62 blew past the $0.96 estimate. The real driver was guidance—FY2027 net sales of $65 billion to $72 billion versus a $52.5 billion consensus, and Q1 FY2027 sales guided to $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion versus $11.68 billion expected. Shares jumped as much as +8.5% in after-hours trading on the outlook, even with $8.8 billion in debt against $1.29 billion of cash still weighing on the balance-sheet picture.
🟢 CRWV posted second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, up 112% year-over-year and just ahead of the $2.56 billion consensus, with an adjusted per-share loss of $1.14, narrower than the roughly $1.20-$1.41 loss analysts had modeled. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion and adjusted operating income to $960 million to $1.15 billion, both above prior guidance, and disclosed new commitments with Anthropic and a $21 billion expansion with Meta. Shares surged as much as +13% in extended trading, alleviating concerns about AI infrastructure overcapacity.
🟢 CAH reported fiscal Q4 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.60, beating the $2.42 estimate, though revenue of $63.67 billion missed the $65.03 billion consensus. Management guided fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS to $12.40-$12.60, above the $12.05 consensus, and the board approved an additional $5 billion in buybacks. Shares spiked as high as $258.30 intraday—a new 52-week high—before fading to close up roughly +1% at a fresh record high, above the prior closing record of $239.71 set July 7.
🔴 ONON missed on revenue, reporting second-quarter net sales of CHF 850.3 million against a roughly CHF 878 million consensus, and cut its full-year net sales growth outlook to the “low-20%” range from “at least 23%.” Direct-to-consumer sales remained a bright spot, up 34.3% on a constant-currency basis, and gross margin guidance was raised to at least 65%. None of that mattered to the market: shares sank roughly -20% to a two-year low as investors focused on the softening wholesale channel and lowered growth trajectory.
AI
🟡 Nvidia (NVDA) finished little changed after unveiling a partnership with six major financial firms—Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone (BX), Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR—to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure, using compute as collateral. CEO Jensen Huang said the company may backstop up to 25% of individual financing deals; the news drew a mixed reaction as investors weighed the demand signal against renewed leverage and depreciation concerns across the AI trade.
🔴 GOOGL fell -3.6% amid broader tech-sector pressure tied to heavy AI capital spending; the company closed a $25 billion senior notes offering Monday to help fund a 2026 capex budget now guided as high as $205 billion (see Corporate).
🟢 SMCI and CRWV (see Earnings) both delivered evidence that AI infrastructure demand remains intact, offsetting the balance-sheet and margin questions that have weighed on AI-hardware names in recent weeks.
Corporate
🟡 GOOGL closed a $25 billion underwritten senior notes offering across ten tranches on August 10, adding to a $40 billion at-the-market equity program, as the company funds an escalating AI capex budget (see AI).
🟢 CAH renewed its long-term wholesaler distribution agreement with Kroger and announced a new Indianapolis distribution center slated to open in 2027 (see Earnings for buyback detail).
Market Structure
🟡 No index rebalances, S&P 500/Dow/Nasdaq-100 additions or removals, or trading-rule changes to report today.
Macro/Policy
🔴 Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it may take more than one interest-rate increase to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target, adding to a hawkish tilt in rate expectations following Friday’s weak jobs report.
🔴 Market-implied odds of a September rate hike swung higher through the day, touching the low-50% range at one point before paring back, as rising oil prices reignited inflation concerns (see Prediction Markets).
🟡 Wednesday’s July CPI report is now the week’s central catalyst, followed by PPI on Thursday (see Tomorrow’s Calendar).
Treasury Bonds
🟡 2-year yield: little changed near 4.20%.
🟡 10-year yield: roughly 4.69%, easing slightly after touching a monthly high near 4.70-4.72% on Monday as Iran-deal optimism from Pakistan and Qatar cut into the oil-driven yield jump.
🟡 30-year yield: around 5.20%.
🟡 2s10s spread: roughly +49 basis points.
Geopolitics
🔴 President Trump rebuked Iran’s demand for war reparations over the weekend and said he would let economic pressure build rather than continue active negotiations, telling Axios “we are only semi-negotiating with them.”
🔴 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there is “no possibility of restarting negotiations” until the US compensates Iran for violations of the June memorandum of understanding governing the Strait of Hormuz.
🟡 Pakistani and Qatari authorities separately signaled some optimism that a narrower US-Iran arrangement over the strait could still be reached, briefly cutting into oil’s rebound.
Foreign Markets
🟡 Nikkei 225 was closed for a public holiday.
🔴 Hang Seng fell -1.10% to 25,652.82.
🔴 Shanghai Composite fell -0.82% to 3,934.09.
🟢 DAX was roughly flat, up +0.02% to 26,323.88.
🟢 Euro Stoxx 50 rose +0.18% to 6,535.62.
🟢 CAC 40 rose +0.13% to 8,726.03.
🔴 FTSE 100 fell -0.35% to 10,862.50.
Currencies
🟡 Dollar Index (DXY) held little changed above 99.50, roughly flat on the day.
🟡 EUR/USD traded near 1.1542, little changed from Friday’s close.
🔴 USD/JPY rose to roughly 159.14, up about 0.9% from Friday, with the yen remaining vulnerable to another bout of official intervention.
🟢 GBP/USD eased -0.04% to 1.3503.
Commodities
🟡 WTI crude rose roughly +0.4% to +1.3% to around $83.2-$83.5, whipsawing on conflicting Hormuz headlines—paring gains on reports the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement,” then rebounding as Iran reiterated plans to keep the strait shut until its demands are met.
🟡 Brent crude traded near $86-88 amid the same headline-driven volatility.
🟡 Gold was little changed near $4,428-4,436.
Crypto
🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) slipped roughly -0.5% to about $63,600, tracking the modestly risk-off tone in equities.
Prediction Markets
🔴 Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike jumped to roughly 51% at one point Monday, up from 44% the prior session, before easing back as Iran-deal optimism took some of the inflation premium out of oil (see Macro/Policy and Treasury Bonds).
Volatility
🟢 VIX fell -1.16% to 15.28, still comfortably below its historical average even as the major indices pulled back from record territory.
Tomorrow’s Calendar
ONDS reports before the market open on Thursday, August 13. Consensus calls for revenue of roughly $63 million to $69 million, up roughly tenfold year-over-year, and EPS of -$0.06 to -$0.09.
Wednesday, August 12, 8:30 AM ET: July CPI—the week’s central catalyst.
Thursday, August 13, 8:30 AM ET: July PPI.
3 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish: A cool July CPI print Wednesday reinforces the case for a Fed on hold, oil eases further on Hormuz progress, and the AI-infrastructure demand signal from SMCI and CRWV carries into broader tech leadership, lifting the S&P 500 back toward its record close.
🟡 Neutral: CPI lands close to expectations. The index chops in a range below last week’s record as investors digest mixed AI-capex signals and wait for more clarity on the Hormuz standoff before committing either direction.
🔴 Bearish: A hot CPI print revives the rate-hike case just as oil spikes again on a Hormuz breakdown, snapping yields higher and hitting the high-multiple AI infrastructure names hardest—reversing today’s post-earnings gains in SMCI and CRWV.
Final Take
Tuesday was a tale of two markets: a cautious, Iran-and-CPI-wary daytime session, and an AI-infrastructure relief rally after the bell.
SMCI and CRWV each proved that demand for AI compute is still outrunning the market’s worries about debt, cash burn, and depreciation—at least for one more quarter.
CAH quietly closed at a record high, a reminder that not every story in this tape is about AI.
ONON was the exception that proves the market’s current rule: growth that slows, even growth that’s still healthy in absolute terms, gets punished hard.
None of today’s moves will matter much if Wednesday’s CPI print breaks the wrong way—a hot number would hit the same AI infrastructure names that just rallied on earnings, and hit them hardest.
For now, the setup into Wednesday is straightforward: cool inflation extends the record-close narrative, hot inflation attacks it directly.
Source: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Trading Economics, Reuters, Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, TipRanks.
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