Closing Look - 8/13/26
Stocks closed at fresh records Thursday as a flat July PPI reading cemented bets that the Fed holds rates steady in September.
Summary
🟢 The S&P 500 gained +0.65% to a record 7,798.99, having also topped 7,800 intraday for the first time.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied +0.81% to 26,803.03 on a broad semiconductor rally, while the Russell 2000 notched its 27th record close of the year.
Workday (WDAY) surged +17.78% on a buyout report (see Corporate), and Cisco Systems (CSCO) tumbled -8.40% despite beating estimates, as investors fixated on shrinking AI-hardware margins (see Earnings).
Oil slid further and the government paid the highest rate for 30-year debt since 2001, underscoring persistent fiscal and geopolitical crosscurrents even as equities cheer easing inflation.
Major Indices & Breadth
🟢 Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,803.03, +0.81%—led by a broad semiconductor rally as chip names extended Wednesday’s gains.
🟢 S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99, +0.65%—a fresh closing record.
🟢 Russell 2000 closed at 3,052.85, +0.24%—its 27th record close of 2026, now up roughly 23% year-to-date.
🟢 Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,839.99, +0.13% (+69.72 points)—gains capped by a heavy drag from CSCO (see Earnings).
🟢 Breadth was constructive: NYSE advancers led decliners by roughly 1.8-to-1, with the Nasdaq registering 138 new highs against 74 new lows.
🟢 Leaders
WDAY +17.78%
SNDK +13.7%
NFLX +5.43%
MU +4.23%
INTC +3.58%
🔴 Laggards
TPR -15.18%
CSCO -8.40%
JD -8%
ANET -3.27%
Earnings
🔴 Tapestry (TPR) fell -15.18% after fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.32 beat the $1.28 estimate, but fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $8.4B-$8.5B missed the $8.47B consensus at the midpoint.
🔴 Kate Spade sales fell 10% even as Coach kept outperforming within the TPR portfolio.
🔴 CSCO closed -8.40% to $113.47 despite fiscal Q4 revenue of $17.25B and EPS of $1.22, both beats, plus above-consensus fiscal Q1 guidance of $18B-$18.2B.
🟡 Investors instead focused on gross margin compressing to 66.3% from 68.4% a year ago on rising AI-hardware component costs.
🔴 Applied Materials (AMAT) beat fiscal Q3 estimates after the close (EPS $3.50 vs. $3.39 est.) and raised its 2026 outlook.
🔴 Shares still traded down roughly 2.5%-4% in initial after-hours action on an 80% sequential drop in free cash flow to $210M.
🟢 Sandisk (SNDK) surged +13.7% on continued memory-pricing strength.
🔴 JD.com (JD) slid -8% even as quarterly losses narrowed.
AI
🟢 Semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names led Thursday’s rally: SNDK surged, Micron Technology (MU) rose +4.23%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) gained +2.35%, and Intel (INTC) added +3.58%.
🔴 AMAT (see Earnings) topped estimates after the close and raised its 2026 equipment outlook, with CEO Gary Dickerson citing stronger customer visibility into 2027 for AI chips, DRAM, and advanced packaging.
🟢 CSCO (see Earnings) said hyperscaler AI orders hit $4B in the quarter, pushing the fiscal-year total to $9.3B—up 4.5x year-over-year—even as the AI-hardware mix pressured gross margin.
🟢 Nvidia (NVDA) was little changed, +0.17% to $225.68, as the AI trade rotated toward memory and networking names ahead of its own Aug. 26 earnings report.
🟡 Anthropic’s CFO began early pre-IPO investor meetings; some backers are modeling a valuation above $2T, with one investor arguing the company’s growth rate could support a figure above $3T.
Corporate
🟢 WDAY jumped as much as 21% intraday before settling +17.78% to $206.45—its best day since 2016—after Reuters reported private-equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy the company for up to $43B, which would rank among the largest software buyouts on record.
🟢 Netflix (NFLX) rose +5.43% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a new stake as part of a broader portfolio restructuring.
🟢 Dell Technologies (DELL) gained roughly +3% and HP Inc. (HPQ) rose about +3.6% after China’s Lenovo posted quarterly results that beat expectations.
🟢 TPR (see Earnings) also raised its dividend 16% despite the post-earnings selloff.
🟡 The U.S. government sold $25B of 30-year bonds at 5.216%, the highest rate for the tenor since 2001 (see Treasury Bonds).
Market Structure
🟢 Breadth was broad-based (see Major Indices & Breadth): NYSE advancers led decliners roughly 1.8-to-1, with 28 new highs against just 1 new low.
🟡 The market has now gone 183 consecutive sessions without an 80%+ downside-volume day on the NYSE—the longest such streak in at least 30 years, per BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky.
🟡 The Pattern Day Trader rule’s $25,000 minimum-equity requirement has been eliminated, freeing more retail traders to pursue short-term strategies without the prior account-size barrier.
Macro/Policy
🟢 July producer prices were unchanged month-over-month, below the +0.2% consensus estimate, after a -0.1% June reading; final-demand services rose +0.2% while goods prices fell -0.7%, led by a -5.7% drop in gasoline prices.
🟢 The soft print followed Wednesday’s tame July CPI (+3.4% year-over-year, +0.1% month-over-month) and pushed the probability of a September Fed hold to roughly 63%, per CME FedWatch, up from about 45%-50% a day earlier (see Prediction Markets).
🟡 Weekly jobless claims rose again, extending a trend that has kept labor-market softening in view even as equities rally on the inflation data.
Treasury Bonds
🟡 The U.S. Treasury sold $25B of 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.216%, the highest rate for the tenor since 2001—an outsized, historically elevated print reflecting investor demand for greater compensation amid widening fiscal deficits.
🟢 The 10-year yield eased to roughly 4.66%, down modestly on the day after soft PPI reinforced hold-rate expectations.
🟢 The 2-year yield slipped to around 4.18%, also little changed to lower.
🟡 The 2s10s spread held near +48 basis points, little changed.
Geopolitics
🔴 The U.S.-Iran war reached its sixth month, with President Trump claiming the U.S. has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz—a claim Iran’s military command dismissed as “baseless lies,” insisting the waterway remains under Tehran’s control.
🔴 Ship-tracking data cited by the Wall Street Journal showed just 14 vessels crossed the strait Tuesday, versus more than 130 per day before the war—an outsized, still-unresolved disruption despite the competing claims.
🟡 Iran’s central bank said the country will soon join the BRICS-backed New Development Bank, a bid to shore up financial alliances as its wartime economy buckles under inflation and a collapsing currency.
Foreign Markets
🟢 Nikkei 225 rose +1.16% (+784 points) to 68,308.59.
🔴 Hang Seng slipped roughly -0.17% to 25,396.
🔴 Shanghai Composite fell about -0.48% to 3,926.
🔴 FTSE 100 fell -0.56% to 10,772.67.
🔴 DAX fell -0.12% to 26,299.74.
🔴 CAC 40 fell -0.28% to 8,650.56.
Currencies
🔴 DXY fell -0.14% to 99.87.
🟡 EUR/USD was little changed near 1.1520.
🔴 GBP/USD slipped to the high-1.3400s, pressured ahead of Friday’s UK GDP release.
🟡 USD/JPY held near 159.45, essentially flat but still testing the 160 level that has repeatedly triggered coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention this year—an ongoing outlier situation worth flagging even absent a large daily move.
Commodities
🔴 WTI crude (September) settled at $81.25, -2.4%, and continued sliding toward $80 in after-hours trading as the U.S. and Iran traded conflicting claims over Hormuz control.
🔴 Brent crude fell roughly -2% to settle near $87.
🔴 Gold futures slipped -1% to settle at $4,423.60 as profit-taking followed Wednesday’s highs.
Crypto
🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $63,700, little changed to modestly lower even as equities notched fresh records, underscoring its continued disconnect from the risk-on rally.
🔴 Ethereum (ETH) hovered near $1,890, similarly subdued.
Prediction Markets
🟡 CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 35%-37% probability of a September rate hike, down from about 50%-55% a day earlier (see Macro/Policy).
🟡 Polymarket shows a wider spread: roughly 42% odds of a September hike and 50% odds of an October hike, with about 53.5% odds of at least one hike sometime in 2026—running notably hotter than futures-market pricing.
Volatility
🟢 The VIX closed at 14.63, +0.55%, hovering near its lowest levels of 2026 and signaling continued market complacency even amid the ongoing Iran war and record-high equity valuations.
Tomorrow’s Calendar
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary, August) is due Friday morning.
Federal Reserve speakers remain on the docket ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting; minutes from the July meeting are expected next week.
Markets continue to watch for any Iran-Hormuz de-escalation signal or fresh U.S.-Japan yen intervention headlines over the weekend.
3 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish: Friday’s data stays benign, the 10-year yield continues to ease, and AI-infrastructure names extend Thursday’s gains as investors read CSCO‘s hyperscaler order growth and AMAT‘s raised outlook as confirmation the capex cycle remains intact; the S&P 500 pushes toward 7,850.
🟡 Neutral: Indices consolidate near record highs into the weekend as traders digest a heavy week of earnings and position ahead of Fed minutes, with the Russell 2000 and megacap tech trading in a tight range while energy and rate-sensitive sectors chop on Hormuz headlines.
🔴 Bearish: A fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or another hot inflation surprise revives September hike bets, sending oil and yields higher together and pressuring the record-high S&P 500 back toward 7,700.
Final Take
Thursday was a study in divergence beneath a record-setting headline.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closed at fresh highs on a soft PPI print that reinforced bets the Fed holds rates in September.
Yet CSCO fell -8.40% on a beat-and-raise quarter, TPR dropped -15.18% on in-line results, and the government paid the steepest rate for 30-year debt since 2001—all signs that investors are pricing risk selectively even as headline indices celebrate.
WDAY‘s 17.78% surge on buyout speculation and the semiconductor rally led by SNDK and MU show capital still chasing distinct, idiosyncratic catalysts rather than a uniform risk-on wave.
With the Strait of Hormuz dispute unresolved after six months of war and the yen still testing 160, the macro backdrop remains far less settled than Thursday’s record closes suggest.
Source: CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance, TradingEconomics, Schaeffer’s Investment Research, STL.News.
CappNotes offers a small window into the work we do at CappThesis - a technical analysis newsletter company focused on classical chart patterns, trend, and risk management. Explore the full range of CappThesis services here: