đ My Favorite Chart: XLK Technology
This XLK chart is may favorite for one simple reason.
It provides perspective.
We cited it in Wednesdayâs Opening Look report and in our latest YouTube video, as well. We discussed it even further in yesterdayâs monthly webinar for CappThesis Professional and Institutional clients⌠along with another 100 slides followed by live Q&A.
Hereâs what we wrote on Wednesday:
The market comeback has been led by large-cap growthâthat much is clear. The XLK Technology ETF has surged approximately 30% off its lows in just six weeks. Thatâs a massive move in a short periodâand far larger than any failed bear market rally seen in 2022. The best six-week rally back then came in the summer and topped out at 17%.
The last time we saw a 6-week gain of 20%+ was in the period following the COVID low in spring 2020. As we know, that snapback continued, with XLK overtaking its pre-crash highs and ultimately rallying 160% into the early 2022 peak.
This isnât a predictionâbut we shouldnât ignore it either. Why? Because prior to 2020, the last such move happened in April 2009, right after the ultimate low of the Global Financial Crisis. And we know what happened after that.
The Calm Streak Continues
With SPX logging its fourth straight advance on Thursday, it marked the indexâs second winning streak of at least four days in the last four weeks. The other, of course, was nine-day streak from 4/22â5/2.
đEven more telling: the index has now gone 18 consecutive sessions without a 1% declineâthe longest stretch of 2025 so far, edging out the prior record of 17 from 1/28â2/20.
Thatâs still a far cry from the 52-session run in 2024, but itâs noteworthy in a post-volatility environment âď¸.
How much longer can this âboringâ run last? Well, between late 2016 and early 2018, the SPX logged streaks of no 1% declines that topped 100 sessions TWICE.
Do you remember those ultra-volatile stretches without a trace of volatility?
No?
Thatâs the point.
And we may have also forgotten that the XLK Tech ETF gained 160% in just 15 months from April 2020 through December 2021âduring the depths of the COVID pandemic đŚ âĄď¸đ.
As the saying goes: History doesnât repeat, but it often rhymes đ.
