Strong Closes and the MACD

Two Indicators we need to monitor.

Strong Closes

Despite a modest +0.1% gain yesterday, the SPX notched its fourth close above the intraday midpoint in the last five trading sessions. That may seem like a minor technical detail—but it could be a meaningful development.

Why?

One of the five core traits we track for sustainable uptrends is consistent strength into the close. When markets finish above the session midpoint, it suggests that buyers maintained control through the day—a behavior that’s often evident in the early stages of bull moves.

🟦 In fact, this is the second cluster of strong closes we’ve seen this month. From April 7-14, the SPX logged five closes above the midpoint in a six-session stretch. This is a pattern worth noting.

But let’s keep things in perspective.

We’re still not seeing the same kind of persistent intraday strength that defined much of 2024. 📅 Looking back, the S&P had at least FIVE STRAIGHT above-midpoint closes on NINE separate occasions last year—a clear reflection of sustained institutional accumulation. These streaks occurred from February through December and supported one of the strongest runs for equities we’ve seen in the last number of years.

⚠️ Contrast that with the choppy tape of the past few months: sharp reversals, questionable closes, and sub-par breadth. April’s recovery has been constructive, but we’re still looking for more internal confirmation that typically powers bigger and longer-lasting upside.

That said, bullish breakout patterns remain intact for the SPX and others, and this run of good closes is a step in the right direction. The index is trying to reassert upward momentum following the correction from March’s highs, and we’ll need the quality of daily closes to keep improving for that to continue.

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🔁 MACD

So far, the latest MACD buy signal is working. While it was triggered after the massive +9% spike on 4/9, it still has captured the second leg of strength that followed. Importantly, this marks the third MACD buy signal of 2025—with the first two failing badly.

👉 But this isn’t unprecedented.

In 2023, the SPX also saw two failed signals (August and early October) before the third one in November finally stuck. This time is different for several reasons—but so far, the third attempt is looking more promising than the last two. ✅