Good afternoon,
I wanted to share two videos from this week.
1-CNBC interview I did on Monday morning.
2- YouTube video I recorded yesterday for stockcharts.com.
And here’s a quick blurb from this morning’s piece.
SPX vs. 200-DMA
Another technical phenomenon that got a lot of deserved attention the last few months was seeing the SPX slice through its 200-DMA. And when the index’s initial mid-March bounce back failed to reclaim the line, it again reminded all of us of 2022. The first time the SPX undercut the line in January three years ago completely changed the market’s character.
The SPX did overtake the 200-day in early 2022, but those rally attempts failed. The SPX spent various days above the line during those first two bear market rallies (8 days from Jan-Feb and then 10 days from March-April). In early 2023, the SPX stayed above the line then for 32 trading sessions before trading back below it once last time. (It overtook the line for good later in March.)
Right now, the index has been back above the line for 16 straight days. As just reviewed, that’s a lot longer than the failed bounces in 2022, which is constructive. The SPX certainly could revisit/undercut the line on the next, real pullback. But the market has built up a cushion now and could withstand such a development – like it did in early 2023.
