Happy Monday -
Our weekly Roadmap report combines the daily Opening Look piece with longer-term charts, trends and stats. It comes out at the beginning of every week, month and quarter. It’s both a performance review of the most recent period and a chart and study preview of the next period.
This is helpful given that it reveals longer term themes that sometimes are missed in the daily work.
📈 Long-term breadth insights
🧪 Worthwhile studies
📊 Side-by-side performance tables vs. prior periods
🖼️ Selective long-term charts
Sometimes, it’s market-focused (like today); other times, we concentrate on more ETFs/stocks (like last week).
Have a great day. Best, Frank
Daily
-Key Points
-Data table
-Sectors
-Index breadth
-Best/Worst 20
Weekly
-SPX 5-day path
-Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA)
-Best/Worst Weekly ETFs
Market
-Market Strength Indicator
-SPX vs. 20-DMA
-SPX vs. 20-DMA (2020 and 2022)
-Weekly moving averages
-Weekly Bollinger Bands
-Two Live Bullish Patterns
Key Charts
-XLK Tech
-MTUM Momentum
-10-Year Yield
-TLT
-Bitcoin
Intra-Day Friday
For the fifth straight session, the SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs on Friday. It also marked the 19th consecutive day without a 1% decline — a streak that may be tested today given the early negative reaction to the U.S. debt downgrade.
Since that last 1% down day, the SPX has posted gains in 16 of the past 19 sessions, including consecutive runs of nine and five days. This strength has triggered bullish pattern breakouts in hundreds of ETFs and stocks and has now led to daily overbought and short-term stretched conditions.
At this stage, any news could be seen as a reason to take profits. The focus now is on how the market responds to the next dip.
Daily Price Action
If last week’s five-day streak had a flaw, it was that the SPX saw negative internals on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, weekly breadth remained strong, and Friday’s 89% advancing stocks was the best since May 2 (91%).
Also notable: 35 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs — the most since April 9. The last time we saw more than 35 was March 4, when 50 names reached new highs.
Sectors
Healthcare snapped back after weeks of underperformance. On Friday, XLV led all sector ETFs for the first time since April 3, and just the second time since February 24.
In total, seven S&P 500 sectors posted 90% breadth days, even as Technology underperformed. The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF gained nearly 1%, noticeably outperforming SPY.
Breadth
Thanks to strength in non-growth sectors, the SPX’s breadth outpaced both the NDX and R2K on Friday.
Best & Worst 20 ETFs
While large-cap growth underperformed, several small- and mid-cap growth ETFs showed relative strength. Notable leaders included ARKK, XBI (Biotech), and IWO (Small Cap Growth).
Utilities and Homebuilders also outperformed, while Solar, Metals, and Emerging Markets lagged.
SPX Weekly Track
The consistent bid last week is unmistakable on the 15-minute chart. Strong closes were a dominant theme, and the SPX’s 3.3% spike on Monday clearly set the tone. From there, the index spent the rest of the week extending that move.
Weekly Breadth
With Growth leading, the NDX posted one of its strongest weekly breadth readings in recent memory — 93% of stocks advanced. The SPX narrowly missed a 90% week itself. Notably, 209 SPX stocks gained 5% or more, the most since the week ending 11/8/24 (election week). The DJIA lagged, with only 19 of 30 components rising.
Weekly Best & Worst 20 ETFs
Last week’s percentage moves were massive. Among our list of 165 ETFs, the scale and breadth of gains highlighted how broad-based the rally truly was.
Market Strength Indicator (MSI)
Unsurprisingly, the market’s huge week pushed our MSI to its strongest reading possible:
1-The SPX is trading above all key moving averages.
2-Both the 14-Day RSI (intermediate-term momentum) and Williams %R (short-term momentum) are overbought.
3-The index currently has TWO active bullish patterns. Early last week, the SPX hit its first bullish upside target of 2025
It literally can’t get much better than this. The real question: can it STAY this good?
Let’s compare the current MSI setup to earlier 2025 inflection points:
The 4/7 low
The 2/19 high
On 4/7, the SPX was:
Oversold
Trading below all key MAs (each sloping lower)
Coming off a 5% gap down
Closing well off its lows
However, there was one key missing part back then – after the 5% gap lower that day, the SPX hit its third bearish pattern target, thus, at that point… no more bearish patterns were in play.
That combination set the stage for the 4/9 spike.
On 2/19, the SPX was:
Above all of the upward-sloping MAs
Short-term overbought
Sporting one live bullish pattern
That said, two failed bullish patterns had just occurred after 11 straight successful ones from October 2023. Plus, despite new highs, the 14-Day RSI failed to get overbought — a bearish divergence that preceded the fade and eventual sharp drawdown.
Now: Overbought but Constructive
Today, the SPX is overbought, with its 14-Day RSI above 70 for the first time since early December. It’s also up more than 20% in six weeks. No one expects this pace to continue indefinitely.
Still, the SPX has taken advantage of bullish patterns, and it has built a cushion above key support (5,500–5,800)
That may help it absorb the next pullback. Whether it happens this week or later, the trend remains innocent until proven guilty.
SPX vs 20-DMA
The SPX enters the week more than 6% above its 20-DMA — the largest percent difference since 2022. That may not sound extreme, but this kind of divergence is rare. Eventually, the 20-DMA will catch up — or the index will pause. This recent pace isn’t sustainable.
SPX vs 20-DMA: 2022 and 2020
Here are the two last few times the SPX was 6% or more above its 20-DMA.
In 2022, the index soon rolled over after bear market rallies.
In 2020, while the index slowed down after shooting a LOT higher vs. its 20-Day line, the uptrend clearly continued for much longer.
Anything is possible from here, but as reviewed before, the snapback has been much more similar to 2020 vs. 2022. Thus, we should expect digestion, but a complete rollover does NOT seem likely at this stage.
Weekly Moving Averages
The SPX closed well above all key weekly moving averages last week. In contrast, during 2022’s rally attempts, these levels served as rejection zones. That we’re holding above them now is a clear improvement.
Weekly Bollinger Bands
The SPX also moved decisively above the middle line of its weekly Bollinger Bands — another constructive development. In strong markets, the index tends to gravitate toward the upper band and avoid the lower band altogether. Clearly, getting back to the upper threshold is the next step.
Live Patterns
The SPX starts the week with two live bullish patterns.
XLK Tech
XLK surged nearly 8% last week, leading all sector ETFs (XLY was second, up 7.5%). Since the April low, this marks the third weekly gain of at least 7%.
This type of clustering hasn’t been seen since the COVID lows, when two 7%+ weeks helped ignite the long rally that carried through the end of 2021. A similar setup occurred last August and September, which also led to additional upside. The pattern here is both rare and constructive.
MTUM Momentum
MTUM outperformed last week, hitting new all-time highs, though it remains close to its former 2024 peak.
It’s now nearing a test of its weekly upper Bollinger Band — notable given it was just below the lower band a few weeks ago. This is a nearly identical setup to the 2020 rebound, when MTUM rode the upper band through early 2021. Back then, hitting the upper band did not mark a top.
10-Year Yield
The 10-Year Yield has traded within the broad 3.25%–5% range since 2021, but that’s tightened considerably since 2024, with resistance near 4.75%.
If today’s early move higher continues, that 4.75% level will be critical. So far, the yield staying relatively contained has been a key factor in the SPX’s sustained uptrend since late 2022 — despite intermittent macro headlines, especially 2025’s tariff flare-ups.
TLT
TLT is set to test key support near 85 to start the week. This level has been an important pivot zone in recent months and could shape the next move in rates and bond proxies.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is pulling back near prior highs and has yet to log a weekly overbought RSI reading.
This pause may allow the formation of a more defined right shoulder in a potential bullish inverse H&S pattern. Ideally, we’d like to see that this hold above the 95k zone.
Worth noting – in late 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI didn’t get overbought until after the breakout — a move that laid the foundation for the next leg higher. That remains the blueprint this time around.
Very informative and intelligent.
Thank you, Stuart. Your feedback is much appreciated.